Adversarial Risk Analysis por David L. Banks, Jesus M. Rios Aliaga, David Rios Insua

April 22, 2019

Adversarial Risk Analysis por David L. Banks, Jesus M. Rios Aliaga, David Rios Insua

Titulo del libro: Adversarial Risk Analysis

Autor: David L. Banks, Jesus M. Rios Aliaga, David Rios Insua

Número de páginas: 224 páginas

Fecha de lanzamiento: June 30, 2015

ISBN: 1498712398

Editor: CRC Press

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David L. Banks, Jesus M. Rios Aliaga, David Rios Insua con Adversarial Risk Analysis

Flexible Models to Analyze Opponent Behavior



A relatively new area of research, adversarial risk analysis (ARA) informs decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. Adversarial Risk Analysis develops methods for allocating defensive or offensive resources against intelligent adversaries. Many examples throughout illustrate the application of the ARA approach to a variety of games and strategic situations.



The book shows decision makers how to build Bayesian models for the strategic calculation of their opponents, enabling decision makers to maximize their expected utility or minimize their expected loss. This new approach to risk analysis asserts that analysts should use Bayesian thinking to describe their beliefs about an opponent's goals, resources, optimism, and type of strategic calculation, such as minimax and level-k thinking. Within that framework, analysts then solve the problem from the perspective of the opponent while placing subjective probability distributions on all unknown quantities. This produces a distribution over the actions of the opponent and enables analysts to maximize their expected utilities.